More Perspective On Chris Collins' Saturday Surprise - Steve Roberts


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Joining us on the line is political analyst Steve Roberts Steve locally here in Western New York. Republican leadership laser focused on finding a name to be able to keep that seat. And it's point seven congressional district here in New York State wondering if nationally. Republican leaders are focused on the same thing here and why 27. Well it's certainly an issue partly because congressman Collins was such an early this simple supporter president trot. Very outspoken and very vociferous support so he wasn't just another congress. And Democrats clearly gonna try to use that. Just saying. This is part of a pattern. Around supporters. Engaged in the financial chicanery that all the stories about it. Lawyer Michael Coen and the trial of all manner toward its former campaign manager. They're gonna try to link the Collins story and those stories as well I don't think they'll be very successful with that. I think that what happened in the in Western New York is is largely a local story in terms and congress Cox that you will need Democrats tried to make those connections and saying that this. Part of a pattern. Among from supporters of financial listen misdeeds. Steve how much influence will the NR CC try to have on local GOP chairman in selecting the candidate. Well I think very little. I think they're probably Smart enough to know the local Republican. Much better equipped to name someone who's going to be a more effective candidate. For the national. Party to come in and try to dictate that would only cost hard feelings. And the fact is that this is such a Republican district. That almost anybody's the Republican's name is going to be your media have great. Is this worry closer district at that swearing in swing district. The issue of who you pick would be far more contentious or more critical but it's still a real long shot to the Democrats have a shot at this sheet given the fact that. It's been such a heavily Republican district for so long. So and Republicans are still confident even after all the scandal. Yeah I'd mr. mean. It is a Republican district now we have seen. In other places we saw in Western Pennsylvania. The district that voted heavily for Donald Trump and has elected Republicans to congress go democratic in special election. We saw in Ohio last week a district that voted 11% per Donald Trump. The Republican candidate for congress Greek abide by its very very narrow margin so there's no doubt. That there is a rising tide of democratic intensity there's no doubt look at patterns. Special elections around the country this year the Democrats have voted in greater numbers. Been in the past so the intensity. Clearly seems to be on the democratic side so Republicans have to be concerned about that. But in at least in the conference district that's opposed some of the other districts and other places. At least in the columns district they have an enormous built in advantage. Should they be concerned because so there's a pattern to other places yes but they're not nearly as concerned as they are on the. How old Courtney is exceeds that talent is replacement via seasoned politician. Rather than a newcomer with no baggage. I well he's in politicians don't necessarily have baggage that's negative some time it's positive. If you're a decent politician and you have a good reputation pre judgment you have. The record that people. Has supported a previous election I can beat the best given fact you have. Such a short time frame here whoever the Republican name is going to be a very short turnaround. In some ways the argument for a someone who has run before. As a built in campaign organization. Who has connections to district. You can make that argument. You could also make the counterargument that. The best courses of fresh face who has no track record at no risk of political being politically embarrassing but on ballots. I think actually. Given the very special circumstances here where you have a very short term program. Picking an amateur who has no campaign organization and no. Track record of dealing with local officials as a big risk I think they're better off going with the solid. Local. Figure who has a good reputation and who already has to run course. Office in that district Chris and it didn't somewhat. Despite the fact that you think you have Republicans still confident that they are going to hold on to deceit. Do you think Democrats. Both locally and may be at a broader level are. I don't know kicking themselves that they didn't pay more attention to this have back before the primaries began knowing that Chris Collins was under investigation and this whole thing was plausible to happen. Well not a very good very good point. You know when you say that. People who certainly in Washington there was not all talk about the investigation congressman column but I that you would imply locally it was probably better now. They probably Arctic and so. That they don't have 88. Stronger candidate. But you know the fact if you can't run. Strong campaigns and 435. Districts you have to pick and choose here. Position than that Democrats have targeted about 6070. Seats. Around the country here and held by Republicans that they think they have the chances of winning and they only have to flip 23. And the column she doesn't say because of the fact that he wanted to Weasley in the past that he was not on the national radar screen. It probably could have been and Democrats are probably regretting that they haven't put more resources more entry into that seat before now. All right Steve nice talking with you that's political analyst Steve Roberts.