The Future of The 27th Congressional District 8/14 Bauerle and Bellavia Hour 3

Bauerle and Bellavia
Tuesday, August 14th

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

News radio 930 WBA. And its com hourly in David Bellamy got its hourly and they'll be on news radio 930 W. It's eleven minutes after five news radio 930 WB yet so as Mike Ackerman just to talk but on the news this is going to be a very big night in net and why 27 is it going to be a determinative night. Mill in all likelihood no but what are the names of course it has come up to replace congressman Chris Collins is the gentleman sitting to my left in your right on the radio. And that of course is David Bellamy and we don't wanna get into a situation of you know let's let's handicap the race that pat Galvin Mike ransom proper you know what we don't wanna get it to that but. David I mean you're. I mean you're you've got the inside scoop on stuff so well in in a nutshell in a nutshell tell everybody what is gonna happen tonight and why it is significant. I had on the inside scoop is nobody has the inside scoop because their all the chair in eight counties. Monroe counties. Livingston Orleans Wyoming. Genesee Erie Niagara and Ontario counties. Those sheer men and women here's future women they will ago and meet and Canadian. And sit down and more than likely they're probably gonna pull out their calendars in. Talk about what the next process is now there were sixteen people I think Saber cat jumped in that area and buster bunk buster buys and was also in the running ball buster buys and had a few issues the elephants from the zoo together with some issues of the former elephants from the zoo where he he would not agree to not impeached round. And so they had to go so but there was sixteen people. At one point maybe more. A couple people dropped out. And that number you know maybe around ten and they'll get that number down to maybe 56 and then. They'll be a series of interviews with you know different county chairs in their executive. Town committees and whatnot and I guess they're gonna get together and hopefully in the next ten days according to the chairman worthy and and the chairman they're opening had this decision done at least in two weeks. Before then maybe ten days. And and then this whole her whole national labor can be over and we can move nationally or whatever it is it's not up to it what. You just. This is uncharted. Uncharted territory it's not something and there's a after new. People that are are running their their their counties Republican Party right now god. You know one counties is fairly new. Ontario county Wyoming county Livingston county so there are people that our nightly news the the process but this process is do it's it's. You know it's something that's been done in. Well you gotta go back at least seven years explain something to the layman out their David because a lot of us don't understand what the big deal is about getting Chris Collins his name off the ballot why is that such why is that such an issue why's that so complicated why's that so complex just we're not put up some of ballots what's the big deal there's a process and and you've got you know federal petitions are due in New York State in order to run on the ballot via a number of signatures. And the federal primary is a different date in the state primary. Right now Governor Cuomo is getting ready to debate. It's incentive Nixon from sex and city. That's because that's a state race and the state primary we've September 23. So in order to run Chris count on another ballot after Ron state. A position that is you know on the state ballot so the primaries coming up there's still time to give him on. A state ticket here's the problem. County chairmen and women they want to put as many Republicans they can and in the positions that are available. So. It would have to be a position that doesn't exist right now which there's. Legality issues and of course the Democrats are probably a lawyer up and it to court. They would be committing malpractice if they didn't. And then you have you know can open up a C is there a possibility you could take maybe assemblyman may be a state senator. And and create a vacuum created an opening where you can then put Chris Collins on line. And then of course you still have a candidate for this district. The priorities are well obviously the federal congress wants a congressman by the constitution. You can't appoint a congressman you can appoint a senator if the senator doesn't fulfills term. But you have to lack a congress so it's either general election or it's a special election. In this case there's no point in special election because the generals coming up in November. In Ohio twelve we just saw a special election occurred like two weeks ago and those two guys have faced off the Democrat Republican the Republican ones. But they're going to face off again. In the general election seem to individuals it was a special. And other gonna go out and they're gonna be so he's basically congressman for. You know 85 days right and then he goes into a general if you look at Kathy local she won a special election. It 2011. And then she went into a general election. And she got defeat bikers counts. So it was she was not a congresswoman for more than you know it wasn't a two year term she was our cars won for the special. Until the general and that's when accounts for while she didn't have enough time to get into a scandal. You know. To her credit theirs you know not many people ups you know Kathy locals not. Regarded in the seventh and yet but she's not she's not one but again. It's always a scandal. Sometimes it's help sometimes the people passed away sometimes there's something every district. Right you can have a situation so what 20/20 real sense of come out. And then 20/20 two this can be redistricting. Now unfortunately. In the people's republic of New York. A lot of New Yorkers are fully. Like spike on inside that genie out of the state aid going to states that a little bit more. Jet fuel when it comes to state pack and that a by the way I should point out that a lot of southerners are becoming increasingly resentful of this David because what happens if you get the sharks from New York City. Ad they wanna escape into a lower tax state but then they move into the lower tax state and they want all the amenities of New York's other destroying the south as we speak well listen if you look at Fairfax County in Virginia. Virginia was one of the deepest darkest red states in all the country right. And then over a period of time you start to see it Fairfax. Really super glue. And Virginia. It's purple Virginia has been a blue state. Because of the fact you've got so many out of state people movie theater project you see that North Carolina. You see that in Florida quite frankly Florida used to just be a automatic gimme for the Republican Party it up making it more now I always get a kick out of taxes because. Democrats love talking about Texas is in play this year pay taxes were a lot of money it taxes. And they shred their money every time they do. I don't know Ted cruises in a close race looks like it's two or three points right now. Austin. The cities tended to be blue Austin is a very progressive liberal city. I'm not sure that that still plays in the self in the court these taxes but. New York is a blue state without a New York 27 is one of the brightest district. In the entire country to. Ohio twelve. Pennsylvania and what did north. It's similar spread to meet you look like you're 27 Kerry adults from 60%. You would say that 60%. This district. Is highly favorable. Now throughout the elected them they like them they're from people. You know it's it's obviously difficult because of the way the district is drawn up for a Democrat. But the other issue of course is. You've got to get counts up I think as the days go on you're hearing us. Not concerned about. The minds of the GOP in theory in the rest of the counties. You know some of these guys have been there for ever chairman at Morgan I mean he that's what is. In this district alone he's elected for congress and you know this he's been there. They're not gonna get tripped up with the technicalities we look at it as laymen we think I'll houses can happen at a loss. Well the GOP and the democratic party of people at the board of elections and attorneys that know New York State law inside and out. I think as the days go we're more confident that there is a path for pills off the ticket. And to put him in to see how is that going to mean lean. An assembly sent it move up a little rattled where you're able to put him in a seat that someone just vacated. Who knows and there's the problem what of course count wins the C. You know enemy you don't wanna put them if you can't get a oh believe me if he's ready for the white states sent an oh I don't think they would they would bother riskiest state senate seat. But if you port an assembly seat that was like you know the Republican was leading in the assembly. The Republican district in columns we've seen that and hold another headache but you know there's solutions for everything I think. These feature men and women are gonna sit down. And they're gonna plot a course I calendar women this can happen probably next week. And interview processes and and who gets through the next round. OK so it's like jeopardy. Well but where I had so what David there was some thought to yesterday. That Carl Paladino might be the guy bet there was going to be in the lead for the seat for reasons that. You know we we talked about honest upon my Hai Lu called in to the show yesterday there are certainly other names like that David Bell would be a fellow and I mean you have been I think extremely gracious. It in this whole in this whole process of an obviously co hosting a radio show with whomever you cohost. And. Almost pick co host and television ads as the black holes look at I don't believe it and listen. Mick Mick Marie. Is. Was running against you know he was that David vs the goal line right I can't model was the underdog can tomorrow. Now if you port. Step mom Ohio for example he has a TV background. Actually I don't microphone actually on the front of the camera he is Ron. There's no question whatsoever. That you know step on the hi Lou is ready and he wants this. He was all he was running that the county executive race he's Erie county controllers are you ready a lot of that to what I'm saying though is that he's got the he's an elected official in Erie county Erie county holds 42% of the weight in this decision. And he's got the television background you look at a guy like Ed Rapp who spent the Erie county legislature a legacy fit and we everyone knows that name. And and and he's way quick timeout the same people complain about dynastic politics and big money politics but let's keep going but my point is is that this these these are helpful this is an 85 day race. And you don't wanna. Introduce yourself. You know when you look at the rural counties so you've got Steve Hawley and assemblyman. One if not the most conservative member of the new York state assembly David DPH throw. That's probably neck in neck. DiPietro. Is absolutely revered in Wyoming county. Guys in the areas that DiPietro has gotten out through with the district because of his you know very. Brazen stance against the state back. DiPietro was invited all over the state to talk to bill doubling recognition. You've got. Let me see rats and offer who's a senator. What made a legislature for over twenty years. Is now a state senator and has a little bit of Monroe County has the Genesee. Or you know and then you've got robbed or senator or who's a veteran. Eyes he filled Mazie urges senate seat so he brings Niagara county to the game right. But then they're set of their senator Galvin former sheriff of eureka. I Galvin of course very popular. Been around for a very long time. Never really you know he doesn't stir the pot there's not a if there's a negative thing about pat Galvin it's it's usually from a Democrat it's not. You know he's a very safe and reliable. Voice in the senate and that's one of the main problems. You know that that senator flat Ahmadinejad. Who has basically seen and I don't wanna lose one of these guys because we have such a slight margin and remember. If the Democrats getter but get a hold of the New York State Senate. That's going to be trouble in 20/20. Because that means that they're gonna get the last say and redistricting. And that New York State are plus eleven might be. That David Villa via fell as well. Our power of television and radio I'm thirty WPP and so big meeting is coming up right now and that involves analyzed 27 so what David what what's up with the Carl Paladino situation Carl Paladino cause they're quite a stir when he announced that he was going to be in a user of the Paladino flame already extinguished. Not at all like I've. And that's what we're gonna find out that tonight who is gonna go on to the next round. Carl Paladino is never going to be extinguished because there's only one candidate and you look at Donald Trump got 60% of your 27 Carl Paladino got 65% of your twenties. Nadia that was 2010 its 2018. But when people talk about you know that there's. You might vote for candidate race but do you. Show up when the candidate goes to speak at a local church or local you know event Paladino. Fans are. True Paladino supporters they didn't flake from Paladino he is a force to be reckoned with and here's that here's the if you wanna look for clue as to what the Paladino effect was. New York 27 was eight counts is to you know stepped aside all these candidates are out. Who took all the media as soon as they put their name in the race. Carl Paladino MSNBC dedicated ten minutes to an 8 PM primetime show doing nothing. But attacking Carl Paladino so. They are not talking about Chris Jacobs sir it myself and talking about me McMurray that's when anyone but Carl Paladino he is. You know he's a polarizing figure but. This is the closest thing to a political celebrity we have in Western New York Carl Paladino is a national figure that happens to live in buffalo. OK but. We get back to something I said yesterday is that necessarily a good thing or is this card is a Carl Paladino candidacy going to be exactly what the Republicans don't need and that is an energizing force for the Democrats in a year when the Democrats are already supposed to be super energized. Well I'll tell you what here's probably something you won't hear from any other person has been mentioned in this race. There's not a single man or woman. Who has thrown their hat in the ring. That you know it's not going to win in New York 27 it's an art plus eleven. There are people that are we it's a Zogby poll that showed independents are now moving up four points higher than they were you. To support Republicans. In the mid term elections and the reason for that is the economy. And by the way there I go back to the second quarter and they'll just the growth like they do all the time it's it's four point one it's four point five. Obama did that at the numbers went the other way. As I applaud it's actually worse at that was when we reported. You don't the last three weeks we we found us a missing people didn't have jobs. These are the exact opposite numbers these are historical. Unemployment numbers there unemployment lol I with African Americans minorities women. And the other thing that you're seeing is you know the manufacturing jobs the promise that these jobs are never coming back. For a while Obama is trying to tell us that our nation is going to be in the nation of website developer and that the only future you're habits to learn IT hey you're 65 years old and you've got laid off. Guess what learn coding and you're going to be great you'll get a job anywhere. Dole's manufacturing jobs coming back. Were state were seen you know and also people making different decisions you want your kid to go for your school you want your kids who are trade. They used to be a bad word for years ago. If you if your kid wanna be a welder. You know they're people what you're better than that you don't have to learn a skill and don't get an education. And really show that you wanna make a living. That's ridiculous. Community colleges and and giving it to the and the military. All of these different options that are out there manufacturing jobs through the people making things their hands again. This is connected to go to grow it's going to be. All working class problem for Democrats across the country. New York 27 is no different were cross section of that. And you know it's a very eclectic county you've got far mean you've got to immigration for example. As we have the immigration debate and we talk about the wall and drugs and everything else do 27 and has a lot of dairy farmers. Dairy farmers don't have the same deal as it's crop farmers right and a guest worker program is not so so there's. There are folks that are gonna say wait a minute you know. On the Republican on the conservative but in my job this is the totally variety. It takes you know. And a lot of these elected officials that are in the rural counties they understand that the farmers' plight they understand that might not it's different for someone that maybe. Is it an area that doesn't have a lot of farmers. But again I don't think there's anyone in this field. Debt is. Is not going to give the democratic opponent of the fight of his life. How they do is going to be a little bit different you know it is going to be an aggressive did you know while campaign are we get. Trying to go after this kid and rip them to shreds. I'm not sure that's necessary at all ever but if you know people are gonna have different styles of campaigning. Some people are gonna have different styles of raising money. And again the self funder model is a very. I would think that means that your men and women are thinking that the self funding model is very intriguing more than ever. Because of these other competitive races now that means that Zogby poll. Has shown the Republicans moving up a little bit. And you know the better the Republicans do the Maurer the less money that the RCC has to start dumping into races because. You know with a five point spread. In New York 27 do you really need to put three million dollars in this race not exactly. If you've got to Ohio twelve to 06 points you really need to dump two million dollars in that market. Probably not colossus. David there are some people who believe that maybe David Bell of the does not have a fighter M in the belly and I think what they are doing is they're confusing your graciousness and your honoring your integrity with a disinterest. -- made it it's always difficult to communicate in the mass media because you know you're a class act obviously and you're you know honor is one of the by words have of your life. And you have been so gracious towards the other candidates as some people are misinterpreting that is Appel levee as really one of David Bell be really wanna run for congress so. How how badly and we do you do you want about that you don't enjoy getting to spend four hours five hours a day with me every day but. I've heard a lot of people talk about you know the columns candidate model back in 2012. A lot of people were upset in the in the Republican Party the way that that went down. Basically you know someone who waited columns waited for the district to be drawn up and then he threw his hat in the ring. And scared everyone there were the same people the same name and you're hearing today were interested in 2012. And they want to do it. I'm the one that they took him to a primary because I thought that there was a complete difference and I and I and I told. Chris Collins this you know during that the big contest after the contest. I told them we cease service completely different. That that would be the definition is that are you doing this. Because it short time are you doing this because this opportunity is something you can't turn down and you'll never get a shot like this again. Or are you doing this because you feel compelled. To step up. And do something in you know for your country and and for the constituents and you know I can't answer that for everyone else but. I got around his district when it was four and you know I knew we were Ontario county nobody knew anything about accountability and links him. And and the thing animals product is that you know whether they voted for me they didn't. Like you know what. Alec do we handle yourself. I like the fact that you're still talking to us you still come to the barbecues he's still do what you can do. To help out that that makes me feel good and I I feel like I'll have that even after this you know thing is over but. There's no point in saying that you're running for a race that doesn't exist back at 2008. When Tom Reynolds retired. Hi ran at that. You look at step on my right now multiply that by seventeen. I'd I'd open my shirt up in an offer to wrestle with that should the chairmen and women and whoever wanted to arm wrestle me I was super aggressive. Upset a lot of people like I I am I upset a lot of chairman they're like who was this kid what is he doing does he think he's still in Fallujah what's the deal. And so I've learned a whole lot of a just coming down and realizing that there's nothing I can do. There's actually you can just tell them who you are. What you're about. What you wanna do what are your ideas one of the things that this doesn't this process is so so happy and it doesn't allow you to talk about issues. And that's that's really what motivates me more than anything else in the world is like let's talk McCain Feingold. Gil let's talk for policy that let's talk about what's happening in Russia and and and the Ukraine and I'll just everything you can't get into it. Because where Korea model to find out you know who's that. The persons can represent the party do you have any inside knowledge that you picture with soaps are just inside knowledge it's awfully Chris colonists do you have anything that you can share with us that you know that most people don't know about the polling that the Republicans have been doing. They're gonna continue to portal and there there. And again. I don't know if anyone its field. If he did a poll yesterday that the people three anyone in this field is losing the race. To the democratic opponent right now. I'll look like change brought up before before going further living your phone number 8030930. Start at 3180616. WB at 8030930. Stock and a 3180616. WB EN. So I'm sorry you don't there's nobody that is running that actually is trailing date McMurray. From an effort but here's the thing I mean these polls are gonna come out you see you know a landline overs this helpful people. Who's got lines anymore at least it logically it seems somewhat flawed. Radically Havel and probably more likely to vote older person whatever the case may be but again. It's the saturation of the poll where it's coming from you break it down. But but let's get a poll that shows Europe 35 points. And you can find on Election Day that you're not that high you can you can hit people with with robo calls mailers. And then find out that in the people don't like that now or that you run a commercial it's negative and it turns off people you think well. More Republicans came out to vote this is a good sign and that it turns out those people are. Are skipping or race because you use them well. You know offended Emery Emery of the aisle so to me the only poll that announces Election Day. And everything else that's been handicapped right now. Any person that has an hour next to their name has eight hour plus eleven advantage player. And I don't know of anyone that is in this race that you could look at and say. It's. Personally have no business being in this race you know getting. You know it's a complete. Neo fight that just walked off the you know out of Orange showed up and I'd like to move here in and run for office these are accomplished people and and dale and skill sets in and they're very decent QB I don't know. To be able to one thing. Stay away from that. That guy's horrible he's gonna infect the entire ghetto but here's a good thing. See any number trappers. All Hulk do. I'd like to know that you know every Republican that in this race. You know supports the president supports the president's policies. It would be nice note that if the Democrats did win house and and that happened it. McMurray is said that he wouldn't vote for impeachment. His name robberies on the record saying I would vote for impeachment if there was a reason to vote for impeachment you can look at the battle you want but. It would be a little ironic if the democratic candidate was more open to give the president shocked at what the Republicans there's so. But that is not what today is about today is about the calendar mayor on. Questions. And you know everyone's. Path to victory now to raise money. What's gonna run you know what what how do you see the world. Would you feel the president would feel about these different issues. I hear a lot of people that you know own guns they love guns Everett it's all the typical things you'd hear from a conservative Republican. Of the other candidates about Amber's the other day. You're back here at Ed Rapp for example it's like hate guns. At Second Amendment guy the all. There. Republicans in plot for conservative right senator. Talking. I don't see any. The left of senator you know wanted to be Democrat on the and so the Republican. Again it's going to be who to cheer people want. And again you're in your county there the whole cards because that's those two counties loch you know one can it. And fortunately it happened bumpers. The other chairmen get washed out and and that happens it. You know can do it eight company's system in everyone's honorable whenever when the board in and that's like you know. To break the news radio 930 WB yet they've got any questions or comments separate David Bell of the about what's going on tonight this meeting and it out NY 27 this would be the time to ask is if you don't we're gonna get as some other things your news radio 930 WBE and now let's get the very latest in the I'd like that but if I don't commit to something connected right to you guys David Bellamy is so modest if there's one thing that David televisa cannot stand and that is talking about David Villa via I have to literally bring David Olivia out of his clam shell to get him to talk about David Bell Libya which quite frankly speaks volumes about David Bellamy but then again I'm biased. No doubt we're we're just at badly just inside. Inside baseball stuff right now. I would say that WB and admire this this close this close to a new long term deal it's just I mean it's it's I mean it's all but side there's a couple of little things that we take care of but. You're stuck with me on the radio for. I'm gonna say quite a while longer. I've been here I if I were to say quite a while longer in other words I will not be ran for congress. And let's see if nominated I shall run if elected I shall not serve as that. Does that sound good. So yeah no I totally hear you but right now the eight county chairmen and women are getting together there in Batavia New York. And they're gonna and they'll come down with the calendar and have five candidates ready. And then a whole lot process kicks into the second act and whoever makes it through the first round is. You know little do interviews. Is it to me this is a little similar to to what happened. In the special election in 2011 or the apprentice star the approach without Chris Lee when grizzlies stepped aside. Jane Corwin came out that it was the same process yet all these Republicans come together they vetted them and and the next thing you know they picnic. Well we are gonna talk about much much more coming up by after 6 o'clock at news radio 930 WB and so. Yes you're stuck with me on the radio for a little while longer and yes the for those of you and I cannot believe bubble can that is made a little bit the 6 o'clock hour eight that it radio time to do it but. Misses her Bauerle and I wanna to a listener appreciation party so you can reserve the date of September 8 September 8 for Bauerle stock and it's not in a radio station event and I'm not looking to make money off of it it's just like a thank you party for listeners. And apparently it's shaping up into this major major major event and I kind of feel like the guys who were putting Woodstock together back in 1969 like. What if I'm planning for X number like I can't go to the house. I I've I've I've thought about it there's there's already too much interest in the event so I'll give you what I got so far after 6 o'clock but it will be. On September aid that we do have the date were so set aside September 88 nothing else going on that they that I can think of so. That's going to be today.