930in716 December 6, 2017 Andy Parker on Lake Effect

Wednesday, December 6th

Transcript - Not for consumer use. Robot overlords only. Will not be accurate.

Her it's 930. In 716. Most of us thought we'd be shuttling about now or perhaps stopped in traffic. The early lake effect snow forecast were pretty intimidating. If you didn't pay close attention. And I think the challenges that you're combating. Other outlets they it will take Wednesday Thursday Friday. And combine a three day total into one number. And then put that out there and take this is what the storm total could be. In and in smaller prints they write Wednesday. Friday I'm Tim Wenger on the podcast and that's W Katie W 71 alert meteorologist Andy Parker he's our guy who says. Lake effect is a tough science and it's not exact until he gets well. Closer to game time so to speak. If it is as if you are an atmosphere it she's. Where he has to have access to the ingredients and Nixon to get there at the right to advocate of people's. Missing ingredient in that you don't have the other two and if you had one before the other it doesn't come out the way. That you would expected much like you would bake in in the kitchen. In most situations you've got to have all the warm water in the lake I think we're all familiar with that you've got to have the cold air present above it but. Natalie day you've got to have a great wind direction. And the part I think that people missed out of the equation. It bit you have to have the right amount of crystal growth in the atmosphere. Thousands of vertical feet above your head. Have to have small molecules. Of moisture. Available. To bumping into each other. And and course regulate into ice crystals which real find is the snowflakes and boom grapple pellets that fall out of this tie. And in its you have two out of three you're not gonna end up with the snow or three out of the four year not gonna get the right type for the intensity is often. And you know obviously comes to measurements were in the kitchen if it's as you put in you know one cup of its annual we put in half a cup you're not connect. You know get the right product in the same thing happens with lake effect were either. Very intense or two week war word space station yours it's it's migratory. We've got a lot of things a lot of things that can affected. And so I think that's the best analogy my. Hearts are heavy lived here a long time itself in the and you as well. You know I think when we get these you know for example nor'easter storms the non lake effect you know that this the storms that cross the country your move up the the eastern seaboard. I I always trust those forecasts I think that you know that the sciences there and you guys understand where it's going to go. I think a lot of people don't understand that you know that the true differentiation between a storm like that affront. I guess we could say. Verses a reaction to a front which is which is what you describe is lake effect big difference. When when you look at the two. This deal. Of those 26. Are sometimes he would you know huge differences in magnitude when you think about large scale winter storm that. Develops over Chicago in and encompasses. Multiple states and it can be you know almost a thousand miles from. One side to the other one side it's rain and the other side it's no and you get that big red L in the middle. There was things. Are their own engines in the years it is very hard to effect change they operate we it's a known thing you pointed out there's a lot of signs behind it. And you can get very good predictions on that. What we're dealing with with lake effect. Is so mind new meteorological. Speaking compared of those big ones is that small tiny changes. In the atmosphere. On the order of just even a few hundred or few thousand feet or a few degrees. Of wind shift. Can Alter or completely change the forecast so so there are smaller. Little nuances to forecasting lake effect then to visa larger skills storms are kind of like bowling ball that once set in motion in kind of predict that. This start to finish. So here's the dilemma more for you than me but the dilemma for the media I guess and then the meteorologists like yourself within the media. Is you know for example over a week ago meteorologists yourself included were pointing to the fact that. Something could happen OK you know that something is going to set up in the atmosphere that could produce and will likely produce a lake effect response. We didn't know when we didn't know you know we may have known when we do know exactly where. As we get a little bit closer Sunday and a Monday we started here some forecasts and be very quick to point out night yours. You know calling four feet of snow. Where you. The weird as a responsibility lies people wanna know. What could happen but they also do one a sense of what perhaps may really happen and Indy and that's a challenge because you don't know. But there there isn't. An art. It's a complicated forecast to make. But then when you have that forecast to communicated. He's equally complicated. Because like you said people wanna know in in in our world the media world. Being first is is of value to the managers to accompany an end to the public is well because people like to know. You know when a company like to worry if you will. About real what do it next week plan ahead things like that. And so last week a week ago on Monday we identified that there was going to be a pattern change our our mild weather was gonna come to an end. And and you have so you you picked upon that right away we we hammered away felt very confident that the cold there has come. And leading into it we knew. Monday was going to be. You know a nice day and we want as his last night when pat down the hatches we knew Tuesday it was wet and windy we knew the cold air in the wind would come on Wednesday in the lake effect we're gonna fire up. And and all of that. What was accurately forecast days if not a week. And then as we got to the weekend. It was apparent we were gonna get the right wind direction. That we were gonna get a lake response out of it it was gonna begin you know during the overnight going into Wednesday and that and this was going to be the likely path. And then then what you try to do is once you determine the start time into the event gonna happen we are going ago. So it is going to be here in the south towns then North County kind of let people know we're going to be. And at that time. Support Caster you have to start looking at the intensity of adoration. How long ago to sit over area is going to be an inch an hour two inches an hour and you're trying to determine what the impact is in terms of amount of snow. And the first thing. You can try to do get the location. In the direction and the intensity is is always the tricky part of and so on Monday a lot of folks were. Start to look at the numbers in and what I choose to do and I think is that the most helpful to people is say in the morning. This is what you can in the south sound as which you can expect then here's what you get during the day in the city this is your total for for one day here's what you'll get on Wednesday. And I think the challenges that you're combating. Other outlets it will take Wednesday Thursday Friday. And combine a three day total into one number and then put that out there and think this is what the storm total could be. In and in smaller print they write Wednesdays and Friday but everybody jumped summit big number and and that's the one that they expect to see Wednesday morning. At the start of the event when in reality that number is more valid on Friday yeah. You know you point out is really be it's true uninteresting and if if if anyone listening can think about it in these terms and if you get three inches of snow over the every day for four days you have a foot. You can go on the air and on Monday and say we're gonna get a foot of snow where he can go on the air as you do which is why you are here by the way and then WT BW. If you know you'll say its three inches today. And by the ways and it'll probably around that tomorrow the next day and for a total of after four days a foot there's a big difference in that that that phraseology. And that's important. And then I'm going to be the first one I have no problem. Poking holes in in our forecast when we do missed the mark but it elect in this situation. A week on at a time we knew would change has come in we identified that we were gonna have the lake effect we gotta burst overnight now here's that part. The unforced C element with this. This intrusion of dry year and know it sounds you know kind of what does that mean it means that about 5000 feet Bob style above your head. You had the a layer of air river apparently came and it did not have a lot of those tiny little water molecules in it. And that prevented account that we we have the lake effect machine turn on in the through snow and in the cattle went to idol and it's it's waiting for their. Dryers slot appear to pass overhead and wanted and we can. Get some moist air get a lot of those little water molecules stack it'll start to kick back on again and and that's what'll happen as we head to the afternoon. So because of that the morning commute turned out to be. Pretty decent for everybody so we won in every aspect of who wasn't that bad. And that will lower the initial totals for via the south counts but I think this city in an area then Wendell still. Be it the low end of that range and and the evening commute will be. Kind of a challenge so there's the first portion of the forecast absolutely because of it drier. Did not end up being a bad morning commute for that the rest of the forecast going to be in a pretty valid for today. Larry it's Andy back to that the broads game Brodsky rather of of of lake effect that. I guess the wind direction we don't want to hear from buffalo metro itself went straight that's the one that it goes even get the plume right across the entire. Stan Utley can no more factors go into it than just the win but. Southwest is what people should be listening for in a forecast straight this time here. Yep if you live in this of the immediate stuff towns west Seneca goes from the northern section work part lack politically build a city of buffalo. All the way up out of the behavior you here's southwest win. And and that means that it's starts picking up picking up a little water molecules off the lake it's Alito. And going right at electoral lake and it's a lot of opportunity to have an intense band the other direction is that northwesterly direction that's where comes over the the shorter distance from Canada across. They Kyrie meg usually targets should talk McKenna rugged southern Erie in that quote unquote ski country if you will. And usually leave the city of buffalo loan but then that also brings the Lake Ontario. Aspect in play in action clip portions of Niagara in Orleans coming up there. And we always forget about their big monster Lake Ontario to the north of us as well. In just small degree shifts in in the wind can make a big difference on shore where where those bands go. Yet you could have. Instead of a 240 degree wind you have a 245. And and when you make that small. Adjustment in degrees if you go from the edge of the lake inland. There could be two communities over so instead of one community getting all that snow. Now it's two or three communities over and and it becomes a bigger mr. further inland ago. Right at the shoreline of the lake it's a less impact but yet just a few degrees of wind shift. Can move at lake effect band a few communities though. Ten lake sailing in the you know if you're decree often you go the span of the lake here you're going to be a long way from your target. Where you might end up. And up long term you know we're gonna we're in cold pattern now right no there's no doom and gloom right now but we're gonna be called for awhile. Well yeah they're mean doom and gloom I've been done to be Gatorade the kind of and informal poll and up about half the folks are saying hey I'm ready for this it's it's okay other apps say well I was. I was good with the warms stuff the first few days of December our average temperatures already six degrees above normal then next. Two weeks in the run up to Christmas. Will be in the thirties through the weekend next week we visit the teens. For awhile we get cold shot of air in it looks like we get another reinforcing cold shot the week after. And then all of a sudden here comes the Christmas holidays so yep the middle of December. Is going to be at or below normal black. China then pretty much sounds like December in both Jeremy WB yen 71 alert meteorologist Andy Parker with the lowdown. On lake effect. More no doubt to come and we're back tomorrow. That's 938 in 716. We're back tomorrow with a never radiation from the studios of WD EA and buffalo well.