How Close is Erie County Executive's Race?

No official polling data has come out as experts expect negative turn in campaign

Tom Puckett
October 14, 2019 - 4:00 am
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Buffalo, NY (WBEN) We're about three weeks away from the Erie County Executive's election between Mark Poloncarz and Lynne Dixon, and political experts say there hasn't been much of a buzz.

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"It really is one of the most understated Erie County Executive's races that I can remember," says GOP strategist Carl Calabrese. "There's no hot issue, no controversy, no fighting. It's the exception rather than the rule." 

Calabrese says we don't know how close this race really is. "I'm hearing people speculate about how close it might be, but there's no leaking from either side about interior polling, and none of the big organizations have begun their polling," explains Calabrese. 

While Dixon's raised a respectable amount of money, Calabrese says we'll have to wait to see Dixon's salvos. "If she's going to do a shock and awe campaign, it's probably going to be in the last ten days of the campaign," says Calabrese. As for Poloncarz, Calabrese says it's simple. "Besides, do no harm, don't give any openings for the opposition to exploit, Also, don't forget the ground game and getting out the vote.

Former Erie County Executive Joel Giambra agrees. "It's going to be a low voter turnout election," says Giambra, who believes the winning operation gets out more of the vote. "There's not going to be a lot of activity in the city, so the Poloncarz team needs to get into the city and get them to vote, where most of the Democrats live in Erie County."

Giambra also expects negative campaigning to go up, and there was a hint of it last week. "Sparks didn't fly until the end of the debate, so that's the beginning of the negative campaign season," says Cambria. Giambra says Poloncarz has two times as much money as Dixon and expects the funds to go into negative campaigns.

 

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